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Some Draft Ruminations

You gotta love the fact that Josh McDaniels is a riverboat gambler if ever there was one. As many experts have mentioned, McDaniels seems be staking his early coaching career on some downright zany if not completely absurd draft decisions.

This analysis is based off of rounds one and two because that seems to be where the major talent is in this particular draft. Let’s see what the Broncos started with and what they ended up with. Prior to draft day, the Broncos had the number 11 pick (round 1), the number 43 pick (round 2), and the number 45 pick (round 2).

After all the trades, they ended up with number 22 pick (round 1), the number 25 pick (round 1) and the number 45 pick (round 2). To get the two picks in the first round, the Broncos had to give up the number 43 pick and picks in the third and fourth rounds. I have no real criticism there because this seems to be a top heavy draft. Yeah, there are always some solid players in later rounds, but this year seems to be incredibly deep through the first two rounds. Might as well go after the studs.

The Broncos ended up with Demaryius Thomas (WR) with the 22^nd pick, Tim Tebow (QB) with the 25^th pick, and Zane Beadles (OG) with the 45^th pick. Thomas is a great pick at 22. The Broncos absolutely needed a big young receiver to compliment Eddie Royal. In a few years, the Royal-Thomas combination should be among the top 5 or six in the NFL. Clearly McDaniels is trying to replicate the Welker-Moss combination from his time in New England. At least, that’s what I hope he’s doing. And there shouldn’t be any more ‘character’ issues from that position.

The Beadles pick is also pretty nice. He’s a large young man – 6’4” and 310 – who should fit in with the power blocking scheme that McDaniels favors. And with the loss of Ben Hamilton to Seattle, he might start this year at guard. After this draft, all the linemen on the roster are at least 6’4” and over 300 lbs. Power blocking indeed. None of Shanny’s skinny-mini chop-blocking boys were big enough to hold these guys jocks…err pads. Add in Daniel Graham at TE and the Broncos should be able to muscle up most teams in the NFL with our bevy of average running backs grinding away for 3 and 4 yards a play. Of course we have no center, but who cares? Does anyone have Tom Nalen’s phone number? It’s not like he’d talk anyway.

The trouble starts with Tebow at 25. It might be the best gamble in the world, or it might fail miserably. Brady Quinn is a great insurance policy either way since he’s only a couple of years older than Tebow. (And if I’m Kyle Orton, I’m starting to think this whole “Kyle’s the starter” mantra that McDaniels spouts at every other press conference is a pack of crap.) The problem is that the Broncos likely could have gotten Tebow with either of their second round picks, especially since Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy were still on the board after the Broncos last pick in the second round. And the Broncos easily could have taken one of the other two guys, both of whom will stick around as either starters or solid backups for the next 8-10 years, though neither will likely be great.

To justify the Tebow pick, the Broncos have to think that their offensive line isn’t far from being perfect. Problem: we have no center and we could have drafted Maurkice Pouncey at 11 and still gotten Thomas and Tebow in the second round. Pouncey would likely start on every other team except Pittsburgh who got him. It bugs me that we could have had him and still gotten our receiver and Tebow.

The Broncos also have to think that their d-line and linebacking corps are solid enough to avoid picking up some high quality guys in favor of Tebow. The Broncos passed on a number of solid defensive players, including some solid backups to aging Brian Dawkins, in order to get Tebow, who they surely could have taken in later rounds.

The Broncos still have two more third round picks, a fifth rounder, and a sixth rounder. Maybe they’ll bring a bunch of hard-nosed young players to camp, but the studs are all playing with different teams, and the Broncos will now have to deal with a 3-way clusterfuck at QB (that is only if you ignore last year’s QB draft pick Tom Brandstater who’s got to be thinking about getting with another team right about now).

But McDaniels has got some stones. And hey, you only coach once…I mean live once.

I remain continually impressed by the Denver Broncos this season. I expressed my doubts earlier about the possibility that any loss could be considered “good.” I think that the Indianapolis game has changed my mind on this subject. Of all the games on the schedule, I think that the Indy game was a “for sure” loss. That being said, it was by far the best loss of the season. In the previous losses, the Broncos simply weren’t competitive. The offense was incapable of putting up points against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and San Diego, and the loss of Kyle Orton in the Washington game proved how valuable he is on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos managed four scores against Indianapolis, which is 2-3 more scores than they averaged in the losses against Pitt, Baltimore, and SD. Obviously it would have been nice if some of the field goals from the 4th quarter (3 of them) had been touchdowns, but you take what you can get against an undefeated team.

Interim Fact #1: The Broncos’ defense is currently ranked third in the defensive yards allowed category (a category that says a lot about how good a defense is). There are lots of ways to interpret this, but I’m going to keep it simple by saying that we used to suck at defense and now we are good.

By now, we all know that the Broncos will likely win a wildcard playoff spot if they can beat the Raiders and the Chiefs in home games. The Raiders are up this Sunday, and despite their record the Oakland Raiders are no longer the pushovers they were at the start of the season. They have better than average talent on the defensive side of the ball, and QB Bruce Gradkowski has NFL talent whereas JaMarcus Russell seems to have only junior college talent. Gradkowski suffered serious knee damage in Sunday’s game against the Redskins and it’s likely that he will miss next Sunday’s game. The Raiders have several replacement candidates: JaMarcus Russell, the superstar himself; Charlie Frye, who was a third-stringer in Cleveland before becoming a third-stringer in Oakland; and Bills castoff J.P. Losman who was recently plucked from the USFL. All of them are fairly athletic, though none could hit the proverbial barn-door, & none really deserve to start for an NFL franchise. This can only bode well for Denver, as I suspect they will win regardless of who starts for Oakland.

Interim Fact #2: Brandon Marshall is the sole record holder for most receptions in a game with 21, accomplished against a strong Colts secondary. He also put up 200 yards in the same game. He was unstoppable. There are also many ways to interpret this; I submit the following: Jay Cutler sucks. Those of you in the know will see the obvious connections.

After the match up against Oakland, Denver travels to Philadelphia to play the Eagles. They are playing awesome football the last 5 weeks. They are riding the intangible Momentum Wave at the moment and are unlikely to fall off. They are a doppelganger of sorts for the Broncos. Denver’s scoring defense is ranked fifth in the league while their offense is mired somewhere in the middle of the pack. Philly scores the third most points in the league while their defense is mired somewhere in the middle of the pack. The Eagles win relatively close games by outscoring their opponents (check Sunday night’s close victory over the New York Giants, who Denver manhandled if such comparisons mean anything). Denver wins games by keeping their opponents from scoring even when their offense looks significantly dysfunctional. Broncos players talked at length about how the Indy game served as a measuring stick of sorts – “how good are we when matched against a playoff bound team?” The Colts are a terrible team to use as a measuring stick, since they are having an insane year by any normal criteria and Peyton Manning is probably the best offensive player in the league (the guy is a throwback to the likes of Bill Russell who was a true player/coach, and we all know how good Russell was). The Eagles game is the real measuring stick. Denver will be on the road against a team much like themselves: average talent at most positions, above-average heart on gameday, with a true superstar leading the offense (McNabb and Marshall respectively). If Denver beats the Eagles, they will all but guarantee themselves a playoff spot and they should gain some much-needed confidence that they are capable of winning against the type of team that they will likely see in the first round – Cincinnati, New England (though I’m rooting heavily for the Dolphins in the AFC East), or possibly San Diego.

Interim Fact #3: Elvis Dumervil has yet to be offered a contract extension by the Denver Broncos. He will likely be the first Broncos player to lead the league in sacks. He is the only pass-rusher the Broncos have had in almost a decade. This can be interpreted in one way: The Broncos front office are acting like silly ninnies (yes, that is a technical term) by not trying to lock this guy up immediately; he is a tremendous player, doesn’t beat on women (like other guys playing in a contract year), and positively influences the team in every game. Oh and did I mention he’s active in the community. Silly ninnies indeed!

Washinton Postgame

Denver would have won against Washington if Kyle Orton hadn't gotten hurt. It's as simple as that. With Orton possibly out against San Diego in a game with playoff ramifications, Denver fans might start to see his true value to the team. If Franken-Simms starts against San Diego, the Broncos will lose.

Just like last year, the Denver Broncos are fading just as the Chargers begin their mid-season ascent of the rankings. And frankly, the Chargers are playing some awesome football right now. Even with a healthy Orton, it might be incredibly difficult for Denver to win this game.

Football success tends to rely on a few basic postulates:
1) Teams must have the luck to have a majority of players stay healthy for a preponderance of the season.
2) Teams must have a locker room full of players who are willing to let team victory transcend individual ego.
3) Teams must peak at the right time.

If Orton can't play for more than a game, then the Broncos will fall victim to postulate 1. They seem to be fairly solid on postulate 2, which is surprising given all the off season criticisms of the team. As for postulate 3, Denver might have peaked too soon this season, and will unfortunately face a Chargers team that is starting to put things together and fields more talent than Denver. The Chargers were a wreck the first time Denver played them, but they seem to have coalesced around the stellar play of Rivers, LT is making plays, and their defense is keeping games close.

I would love to be wrong, but I think San Diego will take this one. Of course, McDaniels and the rest have surprised me this year, and it's just possible that Denver will utilize their home-field advantage and the superior arm strength of Franken-Simms to keep the Chargers off the field. The Denver defense can definitely hold the Chargers to a mid-20's output but only if they're not exhausted in the second half. If I were an arm-chair coach, I would use the following offensive recipe. Early deep passes to Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Scheffler to stretch the field; intermixed with heavy doses of a power running game and a few short passes to burn the clock. If Denver can dominate time of possession, then they have a chance to win this game. If Franken-Simms and the rest put up three-and-outs all game then the defense will give way and the Chargers will win.

Washington Pregame

You have to ask yourself if any loss can be considered a "good" loss. The answer to that question really determines how you feel about the two losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

If you consider that Pittsburgh is last year's Super Bowl champion and that last year Baltimore went 11-5 and would have been in the Super Bowl themselves until Troy Polamalu made a great interception for the Steelers to win in the AFC championship game, you might not feel so bad about Denver's two losses. You might not worry that Denver is now 6-2 and starting to lose ground to San Diego because you will think that Denver was bound to lose a few games, and they might as well be against two AFC powerhouses. You will in fact be very excited about the upcoming game against Washington because they are pitiful, and the Broncos will undoubtedly pounce upon them like a cat mauling an unsuspecting little mouse. In other words, our losses were "good" losses. We learned valuable lessons going up against some good football teams, and those lessons will serve us well as we continue to win down the stretch.

If you think that Denver still managed to stink it up pretty bad, especially on the offensive side of the ball, then you might be a little upset and possibly harbor feelings of great animosity and disgust. You might look at the Washington game as a 'trap' game and worry that they will take advantage of our struggling offense and our exhausted defense. You might think that Ladell Betts will find a way to score points and run around our confused defense, while Orton and the offense will continue to look lethargic and generally woeful. If the above adequately reflects your feelings, then of course there is no such thing as a good loss, we are on the verge of being pretty terrible, and will most likely lose in Washington to an inferior team.