Ugly . . . but not exactly a debacle

Prediction: L home Jacksonville (10/12) - Man for man, pound for pound, Jacksonville is a superior team. Their running game is unparalleled (ranked #2 last season). Their QB is solid and virtually flawless (only 3 INT's last season). Their defense resembles a brick wall (no meaningful stat necessary - those guys are simply big, fast, and mean). Our only chance is to keep things close and hope for a last-second field goal. Hence the loss. But moral victories count, and hopefully the Broncos can keep it close. A drubbing would hurt morale. Besides, if things go well, this will only be the second loss of the year.

In a round-about sort of way, this is exactly where I predicted the Broncos would be after six games. I didn't expect our other loss to come from the lowly Chiefs, but overall 4-2 is a great place to be. The conundrum of yesterday's loss, aside from the fact that we were controlling the tempo of the game until the turnover spree, is how obvious our strengths and weaknesses are.

The Broncos have tremendous offensive potential. While turnovers killed Cutler and the offense, they did show the ability to move the ball effectively against a big, fast, and bully-like defense. Michael Pittman looked solid, so solid that Shanahan should consider giving him the running-back role until his old-man legs give out. He ran strong, caught passes on the checkdowns, and provided decent pass protection for Cutler. Very simply, Selvin Young just isn't very tough. He can't get the tough yards and he doesn't catch passes. Minus the touchdowns, Pittman had a statistically similar game to Maurice Jones-Drew. And obviously the touchdowns were the difference, but for the third-string back to put up 125 total yards against the Jags is pretty impressive. Then of course there's Brandon Marshall who looked like a man playing against children on every play except the fumble. He's easily the most talented receiver in the league, but he's given up two huge fumbles in the last three games. For the Broncos to make the playoffs, Marshall's fumble-itis must be eliminated. His fumbles have cost the Broncos in two games. They can't afford another.

Cutler looked solid. He was missing three of his top four targets, as the commentators so aptly reminded us, over and over and over, but he made good decisions against an impressive defensive team. His interception was a toss-up ball that didn't hurt the Broncos, and his fumble came on a tremendous play by Reggie Hayward (one of many defensive playmakers the Broncos let go in the last five years). Cutler didn't look like he was forcing too many passes, at least until the end when he really had to. While he's not good enough to take over a game or win a tough one in the final minutes, he is already a great game-manager with tremendous athleticism. Teams have gone farther with less. But he will have to take the next step sometime this season for the Broncos to be a post-season competitor.

It would be easy to say that our defense is weak and that they can't keep us in games. To some extent, that criticism is true. But it's not the whole story. We have enough talent to field a reasonable defense, and the coaching scheme takes advantage of guys like Champ Bailey, DJ Williams, and the servicable but by no means impressive defensive line. Our defense is missing what Jacksonville's has in abundance - a pissed-off, school-yard bully attitude that manifests itself in making plays when the game is on the line. We can't stop determined teams from making plays. That's our problem plain and simple. We couldn't stop an inferior KC team when they wanted it more, we couldn't stop an over-confident Chargers team in the beginning of the year, and we couldn't keep the Jags from bull-dogging their way to an ugly victory in our house. Jacksonville has no receivers of note. All they really have is an intelligent-yet-average QB, and a couple of solid runners, one of whom we nearly knocked out for the game. There was no reason for Maurice Jones-Drew to run us down or for Mercedes Lewis to score an easy touchdown in the late stages of the game. That shit is ridiculous. The Broncos' defense needs attitude. With attitude, we take the AFC West and advance past the first round in the playoffs. Without, we let the Chargers catch us, make it in as a wild-card and lose in the first round to a team that isn't as talented but wants it more.

Mark my words.