The Biggest Game of the Century

On Saturday the haughty New England Patriots will march into Mile-Hi looking to put another notch on their playoff belt. They are winners of 10 straight playoff games - a feat unrivaled in the history of the NFL. Tom Brady has never lost a playoff game. Bill Belichick is, as I have said many times, the smartest coach in the league. He may be the smartest coach ever. The Patriots are a healthy team, they ended the season strong, and they demolished the Jaguars in last week's game. Conventional wisdom says they are the best team in the NFL until someone beats them, and everyone's looking for the ultimate showdown between the Patriots and the Colts. The Broncos may put up a good fight, so the story goes, but they're just a minor stumbling block between the Patriots and Colts and a potential threepeat for the boys from cold, snowy Boston.

Plus, there's the unfortunate Broncos legacy of not having won a playoff game this century. Not only have the boys in the "predominantly orange" uniforms failed to win this century, they haven't even been close in their three previous playoff games. Critics are also keen to point out the Elway-factor: the Broncos have been mostly mediocre since the retirement of demigod John Elway. It gets worse. The Broncos are playing at home, but it's their first home-playoff game at the wine-and-cheese monstrosity that is Invesco Field. No more steel girders means no more Rocky Mountain Thunder. The rowdy fans who once made the South stands a hostile no-man's land for opponents have become tame in the cozy confines of Invesco. If the national media are right, the prospect of a Denver victory on Saturday is dim indeed.

But there's an orange glow on the Mile-Hi horizon. The Broncos DO have homefield advantage. This is the first year since moving to Invesco that the Broncos have gone 8-0 at home. They won the blowouts. They won the close ones. They won them all. That kind of confidence can't be measured when it comes to the playoffs. Second, the Broncos are healthy. Despite minor injuries to Mike Anderson and Al Wilson, the majority of the team weathered the regular season without any major injuries. Everyone keeps talking about how dangerous New England is now that their players are healthy, but the same holds true for the Broncos. The same guys have been lining up on both sides of the ball for most of the season, and regularity of that sort leads to confidence in the players around you and victory. Third, the Broncos' offense is designed to win in the playoffs. The running game is one of the best in the league, and the Broncos have two excellent RB's in the backfield. The Broncos will rely heavily on the run game on Saturday in an attempt to control the clock and keep Tom Brady off the field. Plus, Rod Smith is easily the best wide-reciever on either team, and his veteran savvy will help Jake Plummer continue to make good decisions and come up with the big plays that lead to playoff success. Finally, the Broncos defense matches up well against New England. The Broncos D is designed to stop the run and make big plays in the passing game. New England's offense is designed around giving the ball to Corey Dillon 20-25 times and game and making a few big pass plays. As good as Tom Brady is, he is not the type of quarterback who beats teams by passing 40-50 times a game. If the Broncos can force New England into a pass-first offense, then Champ Bailey and the rest of the DB's will force several turnovers which may decide the outcome of the game.

The Broncos don't want to get caught in a close game. If the final score is 27-24, you can be sure that the Patriots will win. But if the final score is 31-21, it's probably the Broncos who will advance to the AFC Championship game. This is the first time in the last three years that the Broncos match-up well against their playoff opponent. This is the first year where fans and local commentators have a kind-of low-key confidence that often leads to good things. I think the Broncos will pull off a 10+ point upset. Final score 27-13.