Tricky Statistics and Killer Instinct

Warning: I am a nerd. I actually analyze statistics. You will see some analysis below. If you find this boring, skip to paragraph six (though paragraph three is quite witty and has a link to a Rick Reilly article).

Good teams win close games. By such a rational, the Broncos must be good, right? Then how come they look so darn average?

If I were a Theo Epstein clone (I have the sports acumen and the glasses but unfortunately not the wardrobe), I would notice something amazing about the 2007 Broncos. Their offense leads the league in total yards per game (455.5). Their defense gives up the third fewest yards of any team in the league(218.5). Statistically, Denver's offense and defense are on par with New England. By moneyball standards the Broncos should be just like the Patriots - dominant - and the Patriots just might go 16-0 despite "videotapegate," or "Belichick-the-cheater-gate", or whatever you want to call it. Yet despite the statistical similarities, the Patriots are crushing opponents, while the Broncos are barely winning and will assuredly not go 16-0. Why?

Is it because we don't have Rany Moss? Possibly, but we have Javon Walker and the un-tackleable Brandon Marshall. Both have been incredibly effective so far this season. We have the Slot Machine, Brandon Stokely, who's as good as Wes Welker any day, and we have Jay "RPG" Cutler. He's probably not as smart as Tom Brady, and he's definitely not as good looking, but he has a better arm and great instincts late in the game. And if that isn't enough, we have Daniel Graham who blocks like a fiend and catches like a gigantic, super-slow Steve Largent. I take that back. Daniel Graham is probably faster than Steve Largent ever was. But you get my drift.

Is it because of our defense? Maybe, but the secondary is giving up an absurdly low 62.5 yards per game (nearly 60 yards less than the next closest team). And while opponents can rush against us (we're 27th in the league), they aren't scoring in droves (a respectable 17 points per game). Then what, oh riddle-master sphinx, is our problem?

Well, good teams don't give up double-digit leads in the second half. But the Broncos have. . . . twice. Teams with great rushers, a la Travis Henry who leads the league in rushing, usually get a lot of rushing touchdowns. Example: Marion Barber has three rushing touchdowns this year. Travis Henry has a big fat goose egg; Denver, as a team, has just one rushing touchdown. Good teams adjust in the second half, both offensively and defensively. Shanahan's gameplans seem to stay the same. And therein lies the dilemma. We don't adapt. Or as John Lynch put it - we don't have the killer instinct.

Good teams have killer instinct. Players have it, coaches have it, even the fans and the owner have it. Take New England for example. Tom Brady - killer instinct. Randy Moss - killer instinct. Bill Belichick - cheater's instinct...okay, he has the killer instinct too. In fact, Belichick probably has a little more killer instinct than necessary. The fans have it and so does owner Robert Kraft.

Mike Shanahan has the killer instinct. It's obvious. It's why he's so damn red. That's not tanning lotion, people - it's the blood rush. Shanahan got it with Dan Reeves, got the anger to back it up under Al Davis, and honed it to perfection with the 49ers. When he got to the Broncos, Shanahan's killer instinct got two Super Bowls within his first four years. But for some reason, the last few Broncos teams don't have the killer instinct. Instead, we've got the catch-and-release instinct. It's cool if you're John Denver meandering through the Rockies and eating granola, but it's no good in professional sports.

Killer instinct wins Super Bowls. Catch-and-release gets you ten wins and a first-round elimination. Killer instinct gets you a blowout against the Chargers. Catch-and-release gets you a last second 3-point win over the Raiders. The Broncos need to put teams away. They can start against the Jaguars next Sunday.